Estimates
Source: S&P Capital IQ consensus via Xpressfeed · Generated 2026-07-24.
Five straight revenue misses, but EPS beat 30%+ in the last two prints
Revenue has come in below consensus every quarter since FY2025 Q4, the misses widening to the mid-single-digit range. Normalized EPS, by contrast, surprised +37% and +31% in the two most recent quarters — the earnings line is holding up far better than the revenue line.
Current sequences by metric: Revenue: 5 consecutive misses; EPS (normalized): 2 consecutive beats.
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · Consensus is captured before each actual first became effective.
| Quarter | Metric | Consensus | Actual | Surprise | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 FY2026 | Revenue | $2.87bn | $2.78bn | -2.9% | Miss |
| Q4 FY2026 | EPS (normalized) | $1.36 | $1.78 | +30.7% | Beat |
| Q3 FY2026 | Revenue | $2.75bn | $2.62bn | -4.7% | Miss |
| Q3 FY2026 | EPS (normalized) | $1.29 | $1.77 | +37.1% | Beat |
| Q2 FY2026 | Revenue | $2.99bn | $2.89bn | -3.3% | Miss |
| Q2 FY2026 | EPS (normalized) | $1.51 | $1.49 | -1.5% | Miss |
| Q1 FY2026 | Revenue | $2.95bn | $2.92bn | -0.8% | Miss |
| Q1 FY2026 | EPS (normalized) | $1.45 | $1.48 | +2.2% | Beat |
| Q4 FY2025 | Revenue | $3.03bn | $2.97bn | -1.9% | Miss |
| Q4 FY2025 | EPS (normalized) | $1.61 | $1.61 | -0.3% | Miss |
| Q3 FY2025 | Revenue | $2.87bn | $2.92bn | +1.8% | Beat |
| Q3 FY2025 | EPS (normalized) | $1.52 | $1.55 | +1.9% | Beat |
| Q2 FY2025 | Revenue | $2.97bn | $3.15bn | +6.1% | Beat |
| Q2 FY2025 | EPS (normalized) | $1.49 | $1.81 | +21.7% | Beat |
| Q1 FY2025 | Revenue | $2.93bn | $2.94bn | +0.6% | Beat |
| Q1 FY2025 | EPS (normalized) | $1.52 | $1.38 | -9.2% | Miss |
FY2028 revenue and EPS both cut about 2% over the past 90 days
FY2027 estimates are roughly stable over 90 days, but FY2028 revenue and normalized EPS were each cut about 2%. The recent direction of travel is down, consistent with the run of top-line misses.
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · Point-in-time consensus; Δ90d is Now versus 90d.
| Metric | FY | 180d | 90d | 30d | Now | Δ90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | FY2027 | $11.58bn | $11.50bn | $11.40bn | $11.42bn | -0.8% |
| Revenue | FY2028 | $12.21bn | $12.10bn | $11.98bn | $11.86bn | -1.9% |
| EPS (normalized) | FY2027 | $6.10 | $6.28 | $6.25 | $6.26 | -0.3% |
| EPS (normalized) | FY2028 | $6.77 | $6.97 | $6.87 | $6.81 | -2.3% |
Consensus models an FY2027 EPS dip, then double-digit growth as revenue reaccelerates
Normalized EPS is expected to fall below the FY2026 actual in FY2027 before compounding, while revenue growth builds from low-single to roughly 4%. EBITDA follows the same recovery path.
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · YoY uses the prior fiscal year from the feed; analyst count and range use the first displayed period.
| Metric | FY2027E | FY2028E | FY2029E | YoY | Analysts | Low / high |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $11.42bn | $11.86bn | $12.33bn | +1.8% | 14 | $11.21bn / $11.54bn |
| EPS (normalized) | $6.26 | $6.81 | $7.50 | -3.8% | 14 | $5.92 / $6.50 |
| EBITDA | $1.26bn | $1.31bn | $1.37bn | +2.4% | 11 | $1.22bn / $1.28bn |
Outer-year EPS estimates diverge widely — FY2029 spans $6.63 to $8.15
The FY2029 normalized-EPS range is wide on only seven analysts; the recovery thesis is far from settled the further out you look.
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · Spread/mean is absolute high-low divided by absolute mean.
| Metric | Period | Mean | Low–high | Spread/mean | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS (normalized) | FY2029E | $7.50 | $6.63–$8.15 | 20.3% | 7 |
| EPS (normalized) | FY2028E | $6.81 | $6.38–$7.12 | 10.9% | 12 |
| Revenue | FY2029E | $12.33bn | $11.88bn–$12.71bn | 6.7% | 7 |
Hold-heavy street; targets range from $65 to $140
Eight of fourteen ratings are holds, with three buys against one sell and two underperforms. The $65-$140 target range signals unusually split views on fair value.
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · Analyst counts shown explicitly.
| Street view | Reading | Analysts |
|---|---|---|
| Recommendation mix | Buy 3, Outperform 0, Hold 8, Underperform 2, Sell 1 | 14 |
| Consensus score | 2.86 | 14 |
| Target price | mean $84.00; median $77.50; high $140.0; low $65.00 | 12 |
Coverage thins sharply in FY2029
FY2029 revenue is covered by seven analysts and GAAP net income by only three. The far-year ranges should be read as directional, not settled.